Chart Book · Gavan Ganung

What they shared^°

352

winners, all over $10B market cap, breakouts from 2021 to 2025

+93%

median advance from breakout to top

74%

were already beating the S&P 500 when they broke out

56%

broke out in 2023, the year after the bear market

How to read them

Each of the twelve cards below has two charts. Before is the daily chart for the year up to the breakout, as it looked when you could have bought it: the 10-, 20- and 50-day averages, volume, and each earnings report's EPS change from a year earlier. After is the weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with the 10- and 30-week averages. The rings mark the first weekly close below each average, which is where a simple trend exit would have sold.

A breakout here is the week the long-term trend turned up, with price above a rising 30-week average. It is not a pivot buy point. The study numbers above measure each advance to its highest weekly high; the cards below use weekly closes, so their gains run a little lower. Prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, and EPS is adjusted EPS as reported, from Alpha Vantage.

Two lessons stand out. Leaders show strength before the breakout, not after. And they emerge together: more than half of five years of winners broke out in the twelve months after the 2022 low.

One caveat. These were picked after the fact, so the book shows what winners looked like. It can't show how many stocks looked the same and went nowhere. That's what the live scanner record is for.

Source: my own chart database, daily bars 2019–2026What they shared

Twelve from the book^°

+79%

median gain off the 52-week low by the breakout; every one was up at least +32%.

5 of 12

were profitable, with EPS above a year earlier, in the report before the breakout. Most of the earnings growth came after.

−33%

median deepest pullback on the way to the peak.

+36%

median kept by selling on the first close below the 30-week average, against a median peak of +470%.

APPApplovin · Communication Services

Breakout Jun 16, 2023

Already up 162% off its low at the breakout, sat through a 57% drop mid-run, and still finished as the biggest winner here.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

APP daily chart for the year before its June 2023 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +162%
Versus the 52-week high: −41%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +8
Breakout-week volume vs average: 1.0×
EPS in the last report, year over year: +250%

After · what it didWeekly

APP weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Dec 2025): +2,909%
Weeks to the peak: 131
Deepest pullback on the way: −57%
Earnings beats during the run: 7 of 10
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +61%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +187%

PLTRPalantir · Technology

Breakout May 18, 2023

The textbook case: a new 52-week high, twice normal volume, and EPS up 150% in the report just before.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

PLTR daily chart for the year before its May 2023 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +101%
Versus the 52-week high: New high
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +11
Breakout-week volume vs average: 2.1×
EPS in the last report, year over year: +150%

After · what it didWeekly

PLTR weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Oct 2025): +1,608%
Weeks to the peak: 128
Deepest pullback on the way: −38%
Earnings beats during the run: 5 of 9
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +31%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +36%

HOODRobinhood · Financial Services

Breakout Jul 28, 2023

Both exit signals fired within two months, at a loss. The whole +1,068% came after.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

HOOD daily chart for the year before its July 2023 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +68%
Versus the 52-week high: −4%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +14
Breakout-week volume vs average: 0.9×
EPS in the last report, year over year: Turned profitable

After · what it didWeekly

HOOD weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Oct 2025): +1,068%
Weeks to the peak: 114
Deepest pullback on the way: −47%
Earnings beats during the run: 7 of 9
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: −17%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: −24%

VSTVistra · Utilities

Breakout Nov 19, 2021

Broke out lagging the S&P with erratic earnings, then took nearly four years to peak.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

VST daily chart for the year before its November 2021 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +32%
Versus the 52-week high: −15%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: −4
Breakout-week volume vs average: 0.8×
EPS in the last report, year over year: −67%

After · what it didWeekly

VST weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Sep 2025): +1,042%
Weeks to the peak: 200
Deepest pullback on the way: −49%
Earnings beats during the run: 5 of 15
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +10%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +14%

VRTVertiv · Industrials

Breakout Dec 9, 2022

Broke out 49% below its high on light volume. The next report showed EPS up 600%.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

VRT daily chart for the year before its December 2022 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +76%
Versus the 52-week high: −49%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +3
Breakout-week volume vs average: 0.6×
EPS in the last report, year over year: +15%

After · what it didWeekly

VRT weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Jan 2025): +975%
Weeks to the peak: 111
Deepest pullback on the way: −35%
Earnings beats during the run: 7 of 8
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +4%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: −4%

NVDANVIDIA · Technology

Breakout Feb 17, 2023

Price led earnings. EPS was down 50% at the breakout; the +429% quarter came six months later.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

NVDA daily chart for the year before its February 2023 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +98%
Versus the 52-week high: −26%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +20
Breakout-week volume vs average: 1.0×
EPS in the last report, year over year: −50%

After · what it didWeekly

NVDA weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Nov 2024): +591%
Weeks to the peak: 90
Deepest pullback on the way: −22%
Earnings beats during the run: 7 of 7
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +91%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +381%

AXONAxon · Industrials

Breakout Nov 16, 2022

The strongest relative strength in the set at the breakout, and 11 beats in 11 reports on the way up.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

AXON daily chart for the year before its November 2022 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +132%
Versus the 52-week high: −9%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +51
Breakout-week volume vs average: 1.5×
EPS in the last report, year over year: −49%

After · what it didWeekly

AXON weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Aug 2025): +341%
Weeks to the peak: 142
Deepest pullback on the way: −28%
Earnings beats during the run: 11 of 11
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: −13%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +2%

NFLXNetflix · Communication Services

Breakout Dec 23, 2022

Broke out 52% below its high, on half its normal volume, with the S&P still 19% below its own high.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

NFLX daily chart for the year before its December 2022 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +81%
Versus the 52-week high: −52%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +10
Breakout-week volume vs average: 0.5×
EPS in the last report, year over year: −3%

After · what it didWeekly

NFLX weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Jun 2025): +349%
Weeks to the peak: 131
Deepest pullback on the way: −20%
Earnings beats during the run: 7 of 10
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +7%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +29%

FICOFair Isaac · Technology

Breakout Nov 25, 2022

The steadiest of the twelve: EPS grew every quarter and the worst pullback was 16%.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

FICO daily chart for the year before its November 2022 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +73%
Versus the 52-week high: −6%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +35
Breakout-week volume vs average: 0.5×
EPS in the last report, year over year: +12%

After · what it didWeekly

FICO weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Nov 2024): +303%
Weeks to the peak: 105
Deepest pullback on the way: −16%
Earnings beats during the run: 4 of 8
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +11%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +92%

CEGConstellation Energy · Utilities

Breakout Aug 8, 2023

Broke out at a 52-week high, then gave back 51% before it made its peak.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

CEG daily chart for the year before its August 2023 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +52%
Versus the 52-week high: New high
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +10
Breakout-week volume vs average: 1.0×
EPS in the last report, year over year: −13%

After · what it didWeekly

CEG weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Oct 2025): +277%
Weeks to the peak: 115
Deepest pullback on the way: −51%
Earnings beats during the run: 5 of 8
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +7%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +68%

METAMeta · Communication Services

Breakout Mar 24, 2023

EPS was down 52% at the breakout and still down 19% the next quarter. Two reports later it was up 168%.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

META daily chart for the year before its March 2023 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +134%
Versus the 52-week high: −13%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +28
Breakout-week volume vs average: 0.8×
EPS in the last report, year over year: −52%

After · what it didWeekly

META weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Aug 2025): +283%
Weeks to the peak: 125
Deepest pullback on the way: −32%
Earnings beats during the run: 10 of 10
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +37%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +127%

UBERUber · Technology

Breakout Jan 20, 2023

Still losing money at the breakout. It turned profitable during the run.

Before · what you could seeDaily, one year

UBER daily chart for the year before its January 2023 breakout

Off the 52-week low: +53%
Versus the 52-week high: −29%
Relative strength vs S&P 500: +8
Breakout-week volume vs average: 1.0×
EPS in the last report, year over year: Loss

After · what it didWeekly

UBER weekly chart from the breakout through the peak, with earnings and moving-average exits marked

Peak weekly close (Sep 2025): +224%
Weeks to the peak: 139
Deepest pullback on the way: −31%
Earnings beats during the run: 9 of 11
Sold on the first close below the 10-week: +2%
Sold on the first close below the 30-week: +36%

More charts added over timeTwelve from the book

Chartbook°

What they shared°

Twelve from the book°

APPApplovin · Communication Services

PLTRPalantir · Technology

HOODRobinhood · Financial Services

VSTVistra · Utilities

VRTVertiv · Industrials

NVDANVIDIA · Technology

AXONAxon · Industrials

NFLXNetflix · Communication Services

FICOFair Isaac · Technology

CEGConstellation Energy · Utilities

METAMeta · Communication Services

UBERUber · Technology

Chart
book^°

What they shared^°

Twelve from the book^°